Dems’ plausible path to the Senate majority
Plus, candidates woo Jewish voters in bid to win Nadler's seat
Good Friday morning!
In today’s Daily Kickoff, we report on how candidates are responding to the pro-Israel vote in the seat of retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-NY), examine the shifts in the Democratic primary field in the race against Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) and preview Tuesday’s meeting between President Donald Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. We also look at the latest resignation at the Heritage Foundation as its president refuses to disavow the institution’s relationship with Tucker Carlson. Also in today’s Daily Kickoff: State Rep. Esther Panitch, Harriet Schleifer and Jonah Platt.
Today’s Daily Kickoff was curated by Jewish Insider Israel Editor Tamara Zieve and U.S. Editor Danielle Cohen-Kanik with an assist from Matthew Kassel. Have a tip? Email us here.
For less-distracted reading over the weekend, browse this week’s edition of The Weekly Print, a curated print-friendly PDF featuring a selection of recent Jewish Insider and eJewishPhilanthropy stories, including: After Mamdani win, socialists look to challenge Democratic incumbents in NYC; Israel’s neighbors have banned the Muslim Brotherhood, but Israel hasn’t. Why not?; and Black and Jewish college students explore shared adversity and allyship at DC-area ‘Unity Dinner.’ Print the latest edition here.
What We’re Watching
- Some 2,000 Jewish communal leaders, philanthropists and nonprofit officials from North America, Israel and beyond will gather in Washington on Sunday for the Jewish Federations of North America’s annual General Assembly. The opening plenary will include former U.S. Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel, authors Sarah Hurwitz and Micah Goodman, CNN contributor Scott Jennings and Rabbi Angela Buchdahl, senior rabbi at Central Synagogue in New York City. Read more here from eJewishPhilanthropy’s Nira Dayanim and Jewish Insider’s Gabby Deutch.
- New York City Mayor Eric Adams is traveling to Israel today for a five-day trip where he plans to meet with government officials and economic development and high-tech leaders.
- The Texas Tribune Festival, taking place this week in Austin, continues today with speakers including former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO), Democratic Texas Senate candidates James Talarico and Rep. Colin Allred, Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT), comedian John Mulaney, former Sen. Joe Manchin (I-WV), venture capitalist Joe Lonsdale and former U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder. Tomorrow, Sens. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) and Adam Schiff (D-CA) are slated to speak.
- MSNBC is launching its rebrand tomorrow as MS NOW, part of its separation from NBCUniversal, with dozens of veteran journalists recruited as part of its expanded newsroom.
- On Sunday, the Museum of Jewish Heritage – A Living Memorial to the Holocaust will present its fourth annual New York Jewish Book Festival.
What You Should Know
A QUICK WORD WITH JI’S Josh Kraushaar
Given the GOP’s sturdy 53-seat majority in the Senate, combined with the increasing rarity of split-ticket voters, the Republican Party’s hold on the upper chamber looked nearly guaranteed, with a map featuring very few true swing-state pickup opportunities for the Democrats.
Indeed, the unlikely pathway for Democrats to win back control of the Senate in 2026 runs through states that have been reliably Republican in recent years — Ohio, Iowa, Texas, Florida and Alaska. To win back a majority, the party would need to win at least two of these red-state races, reversing the yearslong Democratic drought in many of these states — along with winning GOP-held seats in battleground Maine and North Carolina, which is far from assured.
But given the dominant Democratic outcomes from the off-year elections, there’s been renewed attention to the possibility of some red-state upsets in 2026. Already, political strategists from both parties are mulling over which seats are the most likely to get competitive, in preparation for an unpredictable midterm election.
On paper, Ohio looks like it’s the best opportunity for Democrats to play offense. Former Sen. Sherrod Brown, a populist, battle-tested Democrat won three statewide elections in Ohio even as the state trended in a more conservative direction. He eventually lost in 2024 to Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-OH) by five points, but ran well ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris’ double-digit defeat in the state.
With the national environment tilting back in the Democrats’ favor, Brown is seeking a comeback against appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R-OH), Ohio’s former lieutenant governor. A September poll of the race conducted by the respected Democratic firm Hart Research found Brown narrowly ahead over Husted, 48-45%. Among independents, Brown held a substantial 25-point lead (56-31%).
Of all the five “reach” states for Democrats, Ohio was the closest in the presidential race, with President Donald Trump winning by 11 points. That should make it the best opportunity for Democrats to win a third seat — even as it underscores how many Trump voters Democrats will need to convert in order to win.
MANHATTAN MOMENTUM
Crowded field of Democrats seeks to win over Jewish voters in race to succeed Nadler

An increasingly crowded race for a coveted House seat in the heart of Manhattan is shaping up to be among the most vigorously contested Democratic primary battles in next year’s midterms, with half a dozen — and counting — contenders now jockeying for the chance to succeed retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-NY). In a district home to one of the largest Jewish constituencies in the country, the open primary next June is likely to center in part on Israel as the candidates signal where they stand on an issue that has grown intensely charged over the war in Gaza, Jewish Insider’s Matthew Kassel reports.
Exception to the rule?: Even as the far left now seeks to ride momentum from Zohran Mamdani’s mayoral victory — which elevated an unabashed socialist to executive office — experts suggested the primary could largely serve as an exception to the anti-Israel sentiments that became a trademark of his stunning rise. The district, which includes the Upper East and West Sides of Manhattan, “is more moderate and pro-Israel than” another heavily Jewish House seat in Brooklyn where Mamdani performed well, Chris Coffey, a Democratic strategist who is not involved in the race, told JI on Thursday.






































































