The withdrawal of nonprofit executive Jessica Reinmann from the Democratic primary in New York’s 17th Congressional District — a top-targeted swing seat currently held by Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) — is bringing the top contenders in the wide field into focus.

Reinmann, who endorsed military veteran Cait Conley upon her exit from the race, was one of eight — now seven — challengers aiming to take on Lawler in next year’s midterms.

A Democratic strategist in the district said he believes Conley, along with Rockland County Legislator Beth Davidson and potentially former Briarcliff Manor Mayor Peter Chatzky, comprise the top rung of candidates in the crowded race.

Those three candidates also led the field by a wide margin in fundraising as of the end of September. Conley had raised $1.3 million, Davidson $1.2 million and Chatzky $1 million. However, the vast majority of Chatzky’s war chest — $750,000 — comprises a personal loan to his campaign.

Davidson and Conley were invited to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s Candidate Week event in Washington earlier this month, where they received additional training and media preparation — a sign the national party sees the two women as the strongest contenders to take on Lawler. 

Conley’s campaign has taken on a distinct national dimension, as she has touted her military background alongside a series of other female national security alumni in swing races. The so-called Hell Cats, a group that formally launched this week, is explicitly modeling itself after Virginia Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger, New Jersey Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill and Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI), each of whom flipped House seats in the 2018 midterms.

In her endorsement, Reinmann said she believes Conley is “by far the strongest candidate in this race” and that she has “seen her commitment to our nation and our shared values.”

Jake Dilemani, a New York political consultant, said that Conley’s profile — a woman with a national security and military background — is “unique and compelling” and one that voters seem receptive to at the moment. But he also cautioned against drawing too many one-to-one conclusions about Conley’s candidacy based on Spanberger and Sherrill’s victories in their recent off-year gubernatorial elections alone.

Davidson, meanwhile, has been racking up local Democratic endorsements, particularly in Rockland County, and she is the only Democratic candidate who hails from that part of the district, where Democrats have struggled against Lawler in previous cycles. Rockland Democrats’ backing for Davidson has not been without some internal controversy, however.

The strategist said that Davidson’s Jewish faith and family could give her a boost in a district where Jewish voters make up a significant and highly engaged portion of the voting population, and have been a strong base of support for Lawler. The Republican congressman has seen particularly strong support in Rockland County’s ultra-Orthodox community.

Dilemani also noted that Tarrytown Trustee Effie Phillips-Staley, who is running as the “de facto lefty” in the field, could rally a base of support with that approach and “pick up some of the enthusiasm that the left has from [Mayor-elect] Zohran [Mamdani]’s win,” but also emphasized that the Democratic voting base in NY-17 is much less progressive than that of New York City.

He said that the field will likely consolidate further in the coming months after the next fundraising deadline at the end of the quarter.

“Whoever is the nominee is going to have a tough challenge going up against Mike Lawler because he has proven himself to be a savvy politician, a good retail campaigner, a good fundraiser, and he has a pretty responsive constituent services team, so the party is going to have to produce a very, very solid candidate to run against him,” Dilemani said.

Hank Sheinkopf, a longtime New York Democratic consultant, also emphasized that Lawler has been popular and has a strong reputation for constituent services, which will make him a formidable incumbent. But he also said that Lawler and Republicans are likely to face backlash over the lengthy government shutdown, and that both Davidson and Conley could give him a strong challenge.

On Israel policy, both Davidson and Conley have expressed support for the U.S.-Israel relationship.

Davidson has highlighted that her daughter stayed in some of the kibbutzim that were attacked on Oct. 7, 2023, and said in a position paper that, “For me and for my family, championing the sanctity and safety of Israel is not an abstract political stance or foreign policy issue. It is deeply personal — woven into the fabric of our identity and survival as Jews.” She has expressed support for continued U.S. aid to Israel.

Conley, an Army veteran who spent time in the Middle East and North Africa in counterterrorism operations, said that, “As someone who has spent my career fighting for democracy, I deeply value Israel as America’s strongest ally in the region, the only democracy in the Middle East and a safe haven for the Jewish people” and that the U.S. should be “firmly committed to the safety and security of Israel.”

During the war between Israel and Iran, Conley expressed hope for a negotiated nuclear agreement but said that “Iran’s unwillingness to abandon the pursuit of nuclear weapons has left the world with few choices” and said that she knows firsthand the necessity of preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. But she also warned about “being drawn into another Middle East conflict.”

Davidson told JI on Thursday that last week’s election results show that voters are looking for change from the Trump administration, but distanced herself from Mamdani.

“What was clear across the country on election day was that voters were motivated to the polls by a strong disagreement with the Trump agenda and a desire for more affordability,” Davidson said. “I bring a very different record than Mayor-Elect Mamdani does, having cut taxes, fully funded our police force, and vocally stood up against antisemitism as a well-known Jewish leader in my community. That’s a record I’m ready to take to Mike Lawler from now through next November.”

Conley told Jewish Insider earlier this year, after Mamdani’s primary win, that she did not agree with his approach. “We need to address affordability but not by raising already exorbitant taxes on New Yorkers that will just drive more people out of the state. We need to stand up for the NY Jewish community and stand against anti-semitism in all forms,” Conley told JI.

But she said that Mamdani’s victory showed that voters are looking for alternatives to career politicians — like herself.

Chatzky has distinguished himself from many in the field with a significantly more critical stance toward Israel — he has accused Israel of violating U.S. arms sales laws, requiring the suspension of arms transfers, and said he did not believe that Mamdani is antisemitic.