The political fall of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, who just months ago was near the apex of political prominence as Kamala Harris’ running mate in the 2024 presidential election, is an object lesson in the consequences of pandering to the far left of the Democratic Party. 

Last year, Walz looked like he was on the fast track in national politics. Now he looks to be ending his career as a disgraced two-term governor.

Walz announced Monday that he’s not running for a third term in office, amid a growing scandal over massive welfare fraud, where dozens of individuals from the state’s Somali diaspora were convicted in schemes involving over a billion dollars stolen from the state’s social services programs.

The scandal offers a snapshot of some of the Democratic Party’s most glaring vulnerabilities. Walz, along with others in the state’s Democratic leadership, oversaw the allocation of generous welfare payments without ample accountability, while turning a blind eye to corruption in a Somali community that’s become a reliable Democratic voting bloc.

A nimbler, and more moderate, politician would have aggressively led the charge against the criminals instead of coming across as a passive bystander. After all, a scandal like this threatens the sustainability of generous social welfare programs that have defined the ethos of the Minnesota Democratic Party. Instead, in his announcement Monday, he decried “political gamesmanship” by Republicans for drawing outsized attention to the issue.

A more pragmatic Walz would also have been comfortable speaking out against scandalous elements within the Somali community (without painting the entire community with a broad brush). Instead, his belated comments speaking out against the fraud typically avoided reference to the perpetrators of the scandal, and he frequently blamed Republicans as racist for invoking their backgrounds. That only dug him into a deeper political hole.

Walz’s sensitivity about not alienating the state’s Somali community also came up in other areas that underscored his progressive instincts. When a leading Somali mayoral candidate (state Sen. Omar Fateh) came under fire for employing virulently antisemitic staffers at the top levels of his campaign, Walz remained silent, even as Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) spoke up. 

Walz also has been supportive of far-left Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) even when she’s faced controversies over using antisemitic tropes and embracing anti-Israel views that have placed her out of the Democratic Party’s mainstream. His selection as Harris’ running mate over Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro was cheered on by the anti-Israel wing of the party. 

The fact that Walz’s time in office is ending, in part, over his ideological stubbornness, is a shift from his early political career. Representing a swing district in the House for over a decade, Walz generally voted with his party’s moderates and broke with liberals on gun rights and energy policy while maintaining strong support for Israel. But as governor, he tacked to the left, embracing criminal justice reform and gun control, while often pandering to his party’s activists. 

In one notable exchange last year with California Gov. Gavin Newsom, he argued that MAGA Republicans were driven by racism and sexism — a point that the 2028 presidential contender disagreed with. Since his elevation to the national stage, Walz has often invoked racism and sexism in criticizing the Republican Party — an impolitic attack that distinguished him from prospective presidential contenders like Newsom and Shapiro.

Walz’s departure from the governor’s race gives Democrats the opportunity to replace him with Klobuchar, a more pragmatic figure who has coasted to reelection since first winning her Senate seat two decades ago. Klobuchar, if she runs, she’ll benefit from being distant from the state’s fraud scandal. 

But she could face challenges on her left that could expose the divisions within the party. Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison, a progressive and longtime critic of Israel, has also been mentioned as a leading candidate. But his role as the state’s lead law enforcement officer during the fraud scandal — already an issue in his reelection campaign — would bring the same political vulnerabilities as Walz with more ideological baggage.