The race to replace New Jersey Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill in her northern New Jersey district, an affluent, suburban area with a sizable Jewish population, has attracted around a dozen Democratic candidates from a wide array of backgrounds. But three Jewish leaders in the state plugged into the local political scene say they see Essex County Commissioner Brendan Gill as the likely front-runner in the 11th Congressional District, with former Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-NJ) as a formidable candidate as well. 

The primary election is set for Feb. 5, with a general election on April 16.

Gill, a former aide to Gov. Phil Murphy, has been endorsed by the outgoing governor, and is considered the leading Democrat, the Jewish leaders said, because he’s a well-known and well-liked figure in the district, has the backing of the Democratic Party establishment, entered the race relatively early and has long been seen as an up-and-coming leader in the area.

He’s also been working aggressively to secure supporters and donors, two leaders said.

But he could also face attacks over his role as Murphy’s campaign manager in 2017, when he faced allegations by a top campaign aide who accused Gill of running a “toxic” workplace, attempting to push her out of the campaign, of misogynistic behavior toward her and other female campaign staff and of using a misogynistic slur in an argument with her. Gill denies those allegations.

Malinowski is a known quantity from his three terms in Congress and has been endorsed by Sen. Andy Kim (D-NJ) as a counterweight to the New Jersey political machine — but there’s only partial overlap between Malinowski’s former House district and the neighboring seat he’s running in now, setting up potential attacks on him as an outsider.

“Malinowski is a legitimate, serious candidate. He’s in the mix. I would not rule him out. He’s a well-known name. He’s got the history here. He’s deeply connected,” one leader said. “If I had to gauge it right now, I would say Gill one, and [Malinowski] two.”

They also noted that the limits of Murphy’s influence were clear in Kim’s election in the Senate race, in which he garnered more statewide party support than Tammy Murphy, the wife of the current governor, who dropped her bid before the primary.

One Jewish leader said that, given his ties to Murphy and their ideological alignment, Gill would likely be a reliable supporter of the Jewish community, as Murphy generally has been. The leader noted that Gill had also worked in the past with Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) and the late  Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ), both of whom were strong supporters of Israel.

“I think you’ll see someone who is a practical, thoughtful person in their engagement with the Jewish community,” they said.

But two other Jewish community leaders noted that Gill’s wife, a state representative, has raised concerns among some in the community.

Assemblywoman Alixon Collazos-Gill attended a Palestinian flag raising event in Clifton, N.J., which featured denunciations of Israel, accusations that Israel was committing genocide and deliberately inflicting famine in Gaza and calls for “no money for wars.”

Collazos-Gill, who has attended flag raising events for various other communities in Clifton as well, posted on Facebook after the event, “I was moved by the sense of community, love and resilience. Thank you Clifton for the kind invitation and the Palestinian community that organized the event.”

She was also critical of the Trump administration’s efforts to deport Mahmoud Khalil, an anti-Israel activist at Columbia University. “So many things are at stake: due process, freedom of speech, the right to peacefully protest, democracy. This is a warning that this can happen to any non-citizen. We should all be concerned,” she posted on Facebook.

She was also endorsed by the New Jersey branch of the Working Families Party, which at the national level has accused Israel of mass starvation in Israel and called for the U.S. to condition aid to the Jewish state. It supported an immediate ceasefire in Gaza two weeks after the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel.

And she attended a meet-and-greet event in May at the invitation of prominent members of the Palestinian American Community Center, a local Palestinian group. Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ) urged the Department of Justice to investigate the group in April for hosting an alleged affiliate of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine at its annual conference. In social media comments, an organizer of the meet and greet emphasized that it had occurred off-site and was not formally affiliated with the PACC, a nonprofit group.

Collazos-Gill was vague about what was discussed in a Facebook post, but thanked the two PACC members for “inviting me to join you in these meaningful conversations about the issues that matter most to you.”

Gill’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment.

The Jewish leader who praised Gill said they had spoken to Collazos-Gill recently and didn’t hear her express any anti-Israel sentiments, and said she had indicated an interest in cultivating relationships with the Jewish community. They also noted that Collazos-Gill is sponsoring legislation to codify the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance’s working definition of antisemitism.

“Regardless, I do think Brendan is a supporter of Israel and the Jewish community as his own person,” the leader continued.

While in Congress, Malinowski was generally a reliable supporter of Israel and a voice against antisemitism, but some of his views towards Israel since Oct. 7, 2023, have raised skepticism in the Jewish community, one leader noted.

In public interviews, he expressed support last year for President Joe Biden’s moves to pressure Israel against entering the Gaza city of Rafah by withholding some arms shipments.

Also in the race is Jeff Grayzel, the deputy mayor of Morris Township, N.J., and a leader in his local Jewish community relations council and federation. While Jewish leaders praised Grayzel and said he’d be a strong voice for Jewish community priorities — one described him as clearly the strongest advocate on those issues — they were skeptical that he would have a path to victory against better-known figures such as Gill and Malinowski.

Grayzel, speaking to JI last week, pushed back, arguing that neither Malinowski nor Gill are particularly well-known in the district. 

He predicted that Malinowski and Gill, training their fire at each other will provide an opportunity for other candidates to emerge, and that the wide field will mean that a fairly low vote percentage is needed to win.

Grayzel outlined a path to victory that includes winning Morris County, where he lives and which makes up 40% of the district, as well as picking up the substantial Jewish vote in Essex County.

“People are sick and tired of politics as usual,” Grayzel said. “I think I have the message that’s going to resound the most with the voters, coming at it as a [former] mayor who has literally solved problems, who’s delivered results for his community.”

The Jewish community, Grayzel added, will “have to come out and vote. … If Jews are sick and tired of antisemitism, if Jews are tired of how Israel has been treated, the answer to that is to vote.”

Lt. Gov. Tahesha Way also entered the race, but the Jewish leaders largely said they do not see her as a strong contender, given that she entered the race late and is not particularly well-known, despite her statewide position.